The most obvious answer to the question ‘what is an NFT worth?’, is the price someone is willing to pay.
This though provides very little context to the question and the true answer can be much more enlightening.
Right now, there are an estimated 25 million NFTs on the market, and every one of them will have a different value to the next.
Every NFT is unique with its own characteristics, so it would stand to reason that every NFT must be valued on its own merit, rarity, project, popularity and demand.
An NFT is worth the value an investor is willing to pay. Every NFT will derive its price based on popularity, rarity, status potential and demand. The more in demand the NFT Project is, the higher the price for each NFT in the project will be. NFTs range in price from $0m to $94m.
The NFT market is comparable right now to the wild west days of the internet back in the late 1990s.
There will be some investors who will go on to make millions of dollars, even billions of dollars, with NFTs and there will be some investors who lose a truck load of cash.
The challenge in the NFT space is trying to not just understand what an NFT is worth today but what an NFT will be worth in 6-12 months-time.
NFT Investors who get that right will be the ones reaping all the rewards!
How to Value an NFT
Unless you’re very familiar with a particular NFT project, know the rarity (valuable) characteristics and current floor price, it’s almost impossible to value an NFT just by looking at it.
Here are two examples of NFTs with their current market value:
NFT Example 1 – Valuation $37,000
NFT Example 2 – Valuation $100
As you can see, if we were to judge the NFT on looks alone, we certainly wouldn’t come up with these valuations.
The first NFT is part of the Gary Vaynerchuk (Gary Vees) NFT collection. He is a very established, influential and followed entrepreneur and has been for many years.
A multi -millionaire investor and entrepreneur, Gary V he has a following, and people waiting on every Tweet he sends looking for a hot tip, or direction to invest.
This popularity naturally increase demand, and as we’ve seen, this increases the NFT price.
So, we can’t judge a book by its cover alone.
We have to open the cover and start reading at the very least the introduction so we can understand more about the project, its founders, its following, the roadmap and the hype.
Only once you combine all these pieces can you begin to estimate a value for an NFT for the longer term away from its current price.
How to Find the Current Price of an NFT
Although it isn’t easy, there are ways of finding out the current price or market value of each NFT.
Current Floor Price
One of the easiest ways of finding out the value of a current minted NFT is to look at the marketplace its shown on (such as OpenSea) and first check the current Floor Price.
This won’t necessarily give you the value of the NFT but it will tell you the lowest price NFTs in this project are selling for. The higher the number of ETH the better.
Here is a screenshot from OpenSea showing the current floor price for the Bored Ape Yacht Club NFT Project. The current floor price (at time of writing) is 99.99 ETH which is equivalent to $288,366!
Current Selling Price
Next take a look at the specific NFT you want to know the value of and see if there is a selling price set by the owner
Now this selling price may be just that. A price set by the owner, but it doesn’t necessarily mean it is worth the selling price set.
The next thing to check is the rarity of the NFT.
Usually, each NFT collection announce the rarity of their collection on a tool such as Rarity.Tools, but there are others.
Often you can find out where the information on the rarity of each NFT item can be found in their Discord channel under the Official Links channel.
If there are 10,000 items in the NFT project, then each will be given a rarity score from #1 to #10,000, with #1 being the most valuable and sought after and #10,000 being the least valuable.
The most valuable NFTs are usually between the top 1,000 to top 250, depending on our popular the project is.
Estimating the Market Value using Past Sales
Now armed with all this information, in particular the Rarity score, should allow you to gauge an accurate price range.
The best way to do this is to check past recent sales on OpenSea of the NFT project and look for NFTs with similar characteristics and rarity score.
Rather than searching for scores one by one of all past sales, which is possible of course, you could look for the characteristics from the rarity tool as to what features the NFT has to give it its score.
For example, you may find the NFT you are researching has a gold necklace, and laser beams coming from their eyes. This may put it in the top 100 ranking NFTs.
The key to success here is to look for similar selling NFTs with gold necklace and laser beams coming from their eyes and see what price these sold at.
If you can find a recently sold NFT with a rarity score within 200 of the NFT you are researching, you should be able to start calculating the market value.
Remember all sales on OpenSea are in Ethereum cryptocurrency. This value changes hour by hour all day and all night, but as a guide the price of Ethereum today is $3,200 for each Ethereum.
So, a selling price of 0.08 ETH would today be equal to $256.
How to Estimate a Future Price of an NFT
It is far easier trying to work out the worth of an NFT today, that trying to predict the worth of an NFT tomorrow, or next month or even next year.
Crystal balls and guess work aside, there are some tricks and tools to allow you to use calculated methods to predict whether an NFT will go nowhere and become worthless or could have the potential to skyrocket and increase the return on your investment.
Here are some of the things I research and review, before deciding to commit to a purchase of an NFT
Reasons to Invest
Some NFT projects are paid for marketing activities designed to drive attention and interest, but that’s it. Once you own your NFT that’s it. The founders walk away with between $500,000 and $3m for their troubles, and you’re left watching the hype fizzle down like a sparkler.
Its key to research the project.
You need to understand the long-term goal of the founders. What are their plans to build the business and make it attractive for other investors to come flocking, because that is the only thing that will cause the price of each NFT to increase as demand does.
Are they planning investment in the Metaverse?
Are they planning on releasing a crypto coin or token which all NFT holders will earn collecting a passive income?
Are the founders building a game where the NFTs are pieces, and will become more valuable as the game grows, and the NFTs become more powerful and valuable in the game?
Are there special exclusive in demand perks for NFT holders such as free merchandise, or access to white-lists for other NFT releases?
It is important to understand where the NFT project is going because the initial hype you can see on Twitter and Discord pre-release very quickly disappears when there is no reason left to hold on to your NFT (also known as HODL – Hold On for Dear Life).
When researching any NFT project or collection I always try and research the founders.
Are they visible or invisible and can their profiles be seen on the NFT projects website, including links to their social media accounts – or are they under the radar with cartoon avatars?
I prefer to know who the founders are so I can do a little more due diligence on them, such as:
- Their experience in the NFT space
- How many followers do they have, and do they have marketing influence already
- Would I invest in them as a person as much as I invest in to the NFT Project
The founders are the ones that will drive the project. They are at the helm sailing the NFT ship in open seas. Good founders can see good opportunities, make good networking contacts and see things others can’t.
Inexperienced founders may not necessarily have the skills and expertise to deliver on their roadmap and goals.
Some founders release good looking NFTs simply for a way to make money, then once all NFTs are minted and they are paid for all the sales, they can walk away with over $1m never to be seen again and the project never materializes into anything.
This is also known as a ‘rug pull’.
Pre-Release and Public Sale Volume
A good indication of the real popularity of a project – and not possible artificially inflated Discord and Twitter followers – is to look at pre-release and public release sales volumes.
If all NFTs sold out to whitelist winners on pre-sale, and one public sale the NFT project sold out quickly (which is often promoted on past Twitter feed posts on the NFT projects Twitter page) then demand was good.
If though 10,000 NFTs were released and only 3,000 sold, it may be an indication the project didn’t resonate with investors.
NFTs versus Holders
The last key metric I like to look at is the percentage of NFTs to NFT holders.
If for example there are 10,000 NFTs sold but only 2,500 holders, it means a low 25% holder to NFT ratio – and on average every investor purchased 4 NFTs in the project.
The higher number of individual holders, the greater the number of people were interested in the project (a higher demand).
If for example there are 10,000 NFTs sold and 7,500 holders, it means a high 75% holder to NFT ratio – and on average every investor purchased 1.25 NFTs in the project.
The reason this is important is because in the first example there were 2,500 people who were convinced to invest, but in the second example 7,500 people were convinced to invest.
More people does mean more demand, and a greater reach for the project, which are all favorable signs.